Considering the future
Futures thinking serves as a visionary lens rather than a roadmap. It doesn't dictate the future but fuels imaginative exploration and conceptualization of potential scenarios. It's like a canvas where creativity meets strategy, allowing us to envisage diverse futures, stimulating innovative ideas, and fostering preparedness for what might unfold.
Geopolitics and Security
Ukraine and the European Russia conflict
- The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is expected to continue in 2024, with no clear resolution in sight.
- The European Union and NATO will continue to support Ukraine, until Amercian election at whic point trajectory could change.
- Russian may seek to expand the war in the spring through proxies and will continue to target energy.
- A radical shift in the lines will occur in the summer due to the pressure of
The Middle East and proxy disputes
- Proxy disputes between regional powers will continue to be a major source of instability in the Middle East.
- The ongoing conflict in Yemen is expected to continue, with no clear end in sight.
- Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia will remain high, with the potential for further escalation.
Taiwan and the Chinese challenge
- Tensions between China and Taiwan will continue to be a major source of tension in the Asia-Pacific region.
- China will continue to increase its military presence in the region, with the potential for further territorial disputes espcieally if Chinese economic circumstance decline further.
- The United States and its allies will continue to support Taiwan. After Amercian elections this could change.
- America will continue to insulate to secure supply changes.
Resource Africa
- The competition for natural resources in Africa will continue.
- Countries such as China and Russia will continue to invest heavily in African countries in order to secure access to these resources.
- The exploitation of natural resources will continue to have a negative impact on the environment and local communities an will drive regional conflict.
Selected Elections that are expected to take place in liberal democracies in 2024:
- United States: The presidential election is scheduled to take place in November 2024.
- France: The presidential election is expected to take place in April 2024.
- Germany: The federal election is expected to take place in September 2024.
- South Korea: The presidential election is expected to take place in December 2024.
- UK: Likely parliamentary elections in 2024 but could be early 2025.
The presidential election in 2024 could combine with UK parliamentary elections to result in a lack of clear leadership within liberal democracies. This could pose a challenge in responding to international events. Consequently November 2024 could contain significant international risks.
Futures
- A Russian victory rewrites European security and may force America to choose between Europe and the Pacific.
- Reduction of fossil fuels will create reduce economic attachment however this could be a disaster for human rights.
- Re-imaging dealing with economic migrants would be transformative to global disputes, if we wish our societies to be beacons of hope they should not have walls.