About futures thinking
Futures thinking acts as a navigational compass rather than a crystal ball. It doesn't predict the future but equips us with tools to explore, anticipate, and adapt to potential scenarios. It's akin to plotting multiple paths on a map, preparing for various outcomes based on informed insights and trends. This approach guides us in understanding possibilities, mitigating risks, and making informed decisions to shape a desired future rather than passively predicting it.
Applied Futures Thinking Horizon 1
Being “right” in futures thinking holds no guarantee of future success; instead, it’s the adaptability to navigate uncertainties that proves pivotal in shaping outcomes. We offer these predictions for 2024, written 2023-12-16, just for interest.
It is the glory of God to conceal things, but the glory of kings is to search things out. Proverbs 25:2
Geopolitics and Security
- Ukraine does something early spring outside of Western orthodoxy if unsuccessful Russian advances to the Dnipro River.
- Israel occupies Gaza but fails to improve quality of life stoking dispute.
- Trump fails to gain republican nomination, runs as independent and leads to democratic victory.
- China feints towards Taiwan due to internal economic situation.
Energy and Environmental Sustainability
- Renewable deployment and supporting storage infrastructure will appear stalled due to culture war around elections, but rapid deployments will occur regardless of outcomes at the end of the year.
- No meaningful progress to net zero will be made due to ongoing conflicts.
Education and Technology
- After AI interfered election life long learning will be prioritised as citizenery is overwhelemed.
- An apparent AGI will emerge, and employment disruption will begin through the middle classes.
- The pursuit of Space will continue with militarisation occurring.
UK Economy and Society
- UK productivity will continue to falter, inflation will further erode sterling.
- UK Intrest rates will fall mid summer and then elevate towards the end of the year.
- UK parliamentary elections occur autumn 2024 with Starmer winning and leading a coaltion government.
- The formation of a post AGI economy begins with a universal services approach to electricity and water.
Opportunities Tenth Person
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