Just for fun

Written SH on 2023-12-19.

Tagged remark economy society future2024 horizon2024

About futures thinking

Futures thinking acts as a navigational compass rather than a crystal ball. It doesn't predict the future but equips us with tools to explore, anticipate, and adapt to potential scenarios. It's akin to plotting multiple paths on a map, preparing for various outcomes based on informed insights and trends. This approach guides us in understanding possibilities, mitigating risks, and making informed decisions to shape a desired future rather than passively predicting it.

Applied Futures Thinking Horizon 1

Being “right” in futures thinking holds no guarantee of future success; instead, it’s the adaptability to navigate uncertainties that proves pivotal in shaping outcomes. We offer these predictions for 2024, written 2023-12-16, just for interest.

It is the glory of God to conceal things, but the glory of kings is to search things out. Proverbs 25:2

Geopolitics and Security

  • Ukraine does something early spring outside of Western orthodoxy if unsuccessful Russian advances to the Dnipro River.
  • Israel occupies Gaza but fails to improve quality of life stoking dispute.
  • Trump fails to gain republican nomination, runs as independent and leads to democratic victory.
  • China feints towards Taiwan due to internal economic situation.

Energy and Environmental Sustainability

  • Renewable deployment and supporting storage infrastructure will appear stalled due to culture war around elections, but rapid deployments will occur regardless of outcomes at the end of the year.
  • No meaningful progress to net zero will be made due to ongoing conflicts.

Education and Technology

  • After AI interfered election life long learning will be prioritised as citizenery is overwhelemed.
  • An apparent AGI will emerge, and employment disruption will begin through the middle classes.
  • The pursuit of Space will continue with militarisation occurring.

UK Economy and Society

  • UK productivity will continue to falter, inflation will further erode sterling.
  • UK Intrest rates will fall mid summer and then elevate towards the end of the year.
  • UK parliamentary elections occur autumn 2024 with Starmer winning and leading a coaltion government.
  • The formation of a post AGI economy begins with a universal services approach to electricity and water.

Opportunities Tenth Person

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Enhancing Strategic Clarity

TPEX Consultancy prides itself on cultivating a culture of rigorous examination within leadership forums. As your team converges, we purposefully provoke divergent viewpoints! Worried about the encumbrance of group consensus hindering business foresight or latent risks? Our consultancy offers meticulous analysis, facilitating in-depth discussions to ensure comprehensive risk assessment and strategic clarity.

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About TPEX

TPEX offers future imagining and tenth person consultancy for decision makers looking to consider the future, before opportunities are missed. We offer online and in-person consultancy to help your business make informed decisions about the future.