Summary foundations for futures thinking 2024

Written SH on 2023-12-19.

Tagged security future2024

Thinking of the future

Futures thinking empowers us to actively engage with tomorrow's challenges and opportunities, acting as a blueprint to craft and influence the future landscape.

Geopolitics and Security

Ukraine and the European Russia conflict

  • The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is expected to continue in 2024, with no clear resolution in sight.
  • The European Union and NATO will continue to support Ukraine, until Amercian election at whic point trajectory could change.
  • Russian may seek to expand the war in the spring through proxies and will continue to target energy.
  • A radical shift in the lines will occur in the summer due to the pressure of

The Middle East and proxy disputes

  • Proxy disputes between regional powers will continue to be a major source of instability in the Middle East.
  • The ongoing conflict in Yemen is expected to continue, with no clear end in sight.
  • Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia will remain high, with the potential for further escalation.

Taiwan and the Chinese challenge

  • Tensions between China and Taiwan will continue to be a major source of tension in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • China will continue to increase its military presence in the region, with the potential for further territorial disputes espcieally if Chinese economic circumstance decline further.
  • The United States and its allies will continue to support Taiwan. After Amercian elections this could change.
  • America will continue to insulate to secure supply changes.

Resource Africa

  • The competition for natural resources in Africa will continue.
  • Countries such as China and Russia will continue to invest heavily in African countries in order to secure access to these resources.
  • The exploitation of natural resources will continue to have a negative impact on the environment and local communities an will drive regional conflict.

Selected Elections that are expected to take place in liberal democracies in 2024:

  • United States: The presidential election is scheduled to take place in November 2024.
  • France: The presidential election is expected to take place in April 2024.
  • Germany: The federal election is expected to take place in September 2024.
  • South Korea: The presidential election is expected to take place in December 2024.
  • UK: Likely parliamentary elections in 2024 but could be early 2025.

The presidential election in 2024 could combine with UK parliamentary elections to result in a lack of clear leadership within liberal democracies. This could pose a challenge in responding to international events. Consequently November 2024 could contain significant international risks.

Futures

  • A Russian victory rewrites European security and may force America to choose between Europe and the Pacific.
  • Reduction of fossil fuels will create reduce economic attachment however this could be a disaster for human rights.
  • Re-imaging dealing with economic migrants would be transformative to global disputes, if we wish our societies to be beacons of hope they should not have walls.

Guiding Businesses Through Tomorrow's Maze

TPEX Futurism Consultancy serves as a strategic compass, illuminating the uncharted territories of tomorrow for businesses. By envisioning multiple plausible futures, we unveil the potential obstacles and lucrative pathways ahead. Our detailed analyses and future scenario mapping not only mitigate risks but also unveil new vistas of opportunity. With our insights, businesses gain a strategic advantage, allowing them to adapt, innovate, and flourish amidst an ever-evolving landscape.

I'm ready to future-ready my business!

About TPEX

TPEX offers future imagining and tenth person consultancy for decision makers looking to consider the future, before opportunities are missed. We offer online and in-person consultancy to help your business make informed decisions about the future.