TPEX

About futures thinking

Futures thinking acts as a navigational compass rather than a crystal ball. It doesn't predict the future but equips us with tools to explore, anticipate, and adapt to potential scenarios. It's akin to plotting multiple paths on a map, preparing for various outcomes based on informed insights and trends. This approach guides us in understanding possibilities, mitigating risks, and making informed decisions to shape a desired future rather than passively predicting it.

Applied Futures Thinking Horizon 2

Accurate predictions in futures thinking don’t ensure success; it’s the agility to adjust and respond to evolving landscapes that truly determines future outcomes. We offer these predictions for 2030, written 2024-12-16, just for interest.

Geopolitics and Security

Return to space transforms defence priorities and reopens MAD stalemate.
Ukraine-Russia Dispute: Frozen conflict except for ongoing pressure over Crimea however likely to see resolution in the coming years.
Taiwan’s Status: Remains independent but establishes significantly improved relations with mainland China.
Petrochemical states struggles with decline in hydrocarbons
Israel, Gaza conflict continues with less external influence as petro dollars begin decline.
UK rejoining the EU become opposition party policy

A return to space in a more extensive way with transform geopoltics, there will some who belive there is a planet B. MAD will seam more fragile with more space based assets and humanity will be aiming for Mars, how does an interplanetary humanity operate?

Energy and Environmental Sustainability

Renewable Energy: Significant investment and adoption of both solar and wind power sources continue with end date for residential domestic gas identified.
Hydro storage for both water and power become prioritised due to dual role.
Solid state batteries see first wide spread deployment in human mobile forms.

The incompatibility of abundant electricity, and neoliberal billing models, find resolution through fears over water scarcity due to limited hydro development. Globally this will prompt further people movments.

Education and Technology

AI-mediated entertainment becomes the norm with individual tailored experiences being typical
AR glass become normal with bold fashion, futuristic design choices popularised briefly.
Teaching moves towards an AI first model.

Financial models, for product cycles and extractionary rent models face significant pressures as individual customers disappear behind AI mediated transactions.

UK Economy and Society

Interest Rates: After fluctuations, interest rates stabilise at around 4%.
Cost pressures by global competition provoke a re-imaging of middle management beginning to approach the UK productivity problem.
Battery development alongside wind generation provide new export opportunities with push for sovereign wealth fund solution.
Societal fractures begin to resolve at society steps back from the abyss with effective UBI and US deployed as society increasing looks to space.

Opportunities Tenth Person

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Futures Thinking 2025

Futures Thinking 2025 Horizon 2

into 2030