Navigating Nuclear Uncertainties
Remarks from TPEX consultancy for decision makers.
From Trident to UUVs: underwater nuclear strategies
Written SH on 2024-02-22.
Tagged nuclear
The recent disclosure by the BBC regarding the unsuccessful Trident test launch highlights the intricate nature of nuclear deterrence strategies, with considerable risks associated with their deployment. Perhaps, an unreliable nuclear deterrent poses greater peril than having none at all as the effectiveness of deterrence hinges on its stability. However, the anomaly of the Trident test failure contrasts with the system’s presumed reliability and built-in redundancies.
The test firing of a Trident missile from a Royal Navy submarine has failed, for the second time in a row.Beale, J. 2024. Trident missile test fails for second time in a row. BBC News. online.
Previously, we have sought to prompt discussions around the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) controlled nuclear dead hand systems, raising questions about the reliance on luck to avert nuclear conflicts and even dismissing Trident as a superfluous asset (see here).
While the submarine-based second strike retaliatory capability remains the preferred option in the near future, the evolving technology of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) is poised to reshape this landscape in the long term.
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References
Beale, J. 2024. Trident missile test fails for second time in a row. BBC News.URL.
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