What do likely changes in the UK economic outlook in 2022 suggest?

Written SH on 2022-08-24.

In future tp . Tagged politics economy

Dembik of Saxo Markets has an interesting article about the potentially of the UK economy in the comming years. We broadly agree with his remarks and are using this to assist in framing boundraies.

Our bet : after surviving Brexit uncertainty, we don’t see what could push the sterling pound into a free fall.
Dembik, C., 2022. Chart of the Week: Emerging market Britain?. online.

This is the kind of area where TPEX tenth person consultancy looks to enlarge the discussion. We still see exstentaial risks to sterling especially within the geopolitical arena. Steps could be taken, by central government, to safe guard sterling but such steps are political in nature and therefore are perhaps unacceptable. Consequently, risks to sterling may yet be imagined.

What Brexit has not done by itself, Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded in doing. The UK economy is crushed.
Dembik, C., 2022. Chart of the Week: Emerging market Britain?. online.

This is the brexit dividend as currently manifested. High inflation and an associated devlution of sterling could yet make sterling deliminated debt more affordable. Is this BoE or government strategy, if so the lame duck UK government situation could perhaps be one of design? All future imaging and tenth person conslultancy must include a return to the EU on the periphery. Until either clear non-dogmatic benefits are identified or the frameworks diverge significantly.

Imagine the graduate entering the workforce in 2009/10, who will have been told this was a once-in-a-lifetime crash. They are now in their early 30s and having yet another once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis. They faced an economy of suppressed wages, no housing prospects, two years of socializing lost to lockdown, obscene energy bills and rent and now a lengthy recession.
Dembik, C., 2022. Chart of the Week: Emerging market Britain?. online.

The damage that is occurring to the social contract is significant. Perhaps a brexit benefit is trapping the young UK population on the island? The continued stressing of the social contract is likely to play out in the ballot box, perhaps with the elderly voting with varying concerns.

Tenth Person

Tenth person advocacy, regarding the UK economic situation is perhaps torn between economic collapse and sudden demand side growth. Either remain conceivable with likely trigger events present with the next 12 months. A recession remains likely but only because it is the consequences of prevailing ideology.

Future Imagining

Futures with significantly different economic systems are always easier to imagine when the current system is under such stress. The success of capitalism in addressing only extreme, global poverty is rightly no longer justification for other ills. Perhaps having seen neo-libreal governments intervening to mitigate the covid pandemic society will seek similar interventions within this economic crisis.

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References

Dembik, C. 2022. Chart of the Week: Emerging market Britain?. [online] Available at: [Accessed 22 August 2022].URL.

About TPEX

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