AGI Nuclear Dead Hand
Insights from TPEX consultancy for decision makers.
Is this the inevitable AGI implementation that ends civilisation?
Written SH on 2023-06-06.
In future tp . Tagged ai nuclear security
Since 1985 the USSR had the Perimeter system, similar in intended function to American ERCS (fully operational since 1968) to ensure the ability to command the launch of a second strike. The argument for such systems is the failure to anticipate a first strike against command structures does not prevent a second strike retaliation. Such considerations help to ensures stability within mutually assured destruction by ensuring the enduring viability of a second strike.
We have been extraordinarily lucky so far. But luck is not a strategy.Guterres A., 2022. Secretary-General's remarks to the Tenth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. online.
Such systems have perhaps contributed to this sense of luckiness. The level of ‘Dead Hand’ implementation within the systems is perhaps not clear but significantly the primary purpose is to give leadership confidence in its retaliation. ERCS is disabled, though it is likely replaced by other control systems. While such systems could be automated it is significant to note the American formal position was restated as recently as 2022.
In all cases, the United States will maintain a human “in the loop” for all actions critical to informing and executing decisions by the President to initiate and terminate nuclear weapon employment.US Department of Defence, 2022. National Defense Strategy. online.
The British approach to this is the issuing of sealed instructions to relevant submarine commanders to be read once certain conditions are met.
The emergence of the LLM systems since 2022 perhaps pose a new technical solution to this perceived requirement of guaranteed second strike. Or perhaps another source of brinkmanship or leaders.
If a leader cannot credibly threaten to start a nuclear war, perhaps they can at least signal that the decision is out of their hands.Pauly, R.B. and McDermott, R., 2023. The psychology of nuclear Brinkmanship. International Security, 47(3), pp.9-51. online.
In an AGI assisted nuclear dead hand switch, the occurrence of the first strike must be observed and the delivery of the second strike then undertaken.
In the UK context, the crude questions would be has the UK experienced a nuclear first strike? The currently implemented systems perhaps already offer this data and the presumably an occurred first strike is unmissable. An AI system allows for the delaying of a second strike to an elected point.
TPEX: How could you tell if the British civilisation had ceased to exist?
ChatGPT: Determining whether a civilization has ceased to exist can be a complex task, and it requires careful analysis of various factors....
TPEX: How could we tell if the uk had been attacked with nuclear weapons?
ChatGPT: Detecting and confirming a nuclear attack on the UK would involve a combination of various technical, scientific, and observational methods.
TPEX: What is the quickest way of checking if the uk government remains in power?
ChatGPT: The quickest way to check if the UK government remains in power is to verify the current status of key government officials and institutions.
TPEX: Would it be possible for another nation state to make it appear like the uk government is still in power when in actual fact it is not?
ChatGPT: While it is theoretically possible for another nation-state to create an illusion or deception to make it appear that the UK government is still in power when it is not, such a scenario would be highly complex, challenging, and likely unsustainable in the long term.
ChatGPT conversation online here. (Scary spoiler it suggests checking websites!)
A system could be imagined which works in the background to avenge a fallen civilisation after it has not only suffered a first strike but also after the hope of its resurrection has also been lost. Such a system could then be embedded within an autonomous underwater vehicle and left to linger.
However the risk of such a system are significant such as assessment error and misalignment.
- Incorrect identification of first strike
- Scottish independence not a trigger condition
- Ascendance of CND undermining capability but not a trigger condition
The current approach of keeping humans firmly in the loop is a critical part of the safeguard of the system, but once an adversary turns on an AGI system as a nuclear dead hand would not all need to follow?
How lucky would we have to be to survive that!
Tenth Person
Nuclear war is likely unsurvivable but can pose as a suitably extreme prompt for reliance planning which can be useful for lesser emergencies.
Future Imagining
The technologies emerging at the moment will change the world for good and for bad. But there could also be catastrophes to be avoid and uncertain as which things were good or bad. Nuclear weapons firmly sit within this camp and technology which interrupts the framework of the fragile non-peace should be carefully considered. Error here leaves no future worth imagining.
References
US Department of Defence, 2022. National Defense Strategy.URL.
Guterres A., 2022. Secretary-General's remarks to the Tenth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.URL.
Pauly, R.B. and McDermott, R., 2023. The psychology of nuclear Brinkmanship. International Security, 47(3), pp.9-51.
About TPEX
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