2024 Presidential Race: Who's Taking the White House

As part of Futures 24, written 2023-12-19, we made this remark,

So we were right not to name Biden, but wrong about Trump gaining the nomination.

Before presenting our final prediction, let’s first explore how the respective presidencies could unfold. Naturally, the trajectory of each presidency will be heavily influenced by the composition of Congress, which, as intended, will likely serve as a check on their legislative agendas.

Speculation about a Harris first term

During a potential first term, Kamala Harris might focus on addressing both domestic and international challenges. One possibility is that her administration could introduce a stimulus package aimed at economic recovery, which could later pivot towards a more defense-oriented economy in response to global tensions. This shift might involve reallocating resources towards defense, critical infrastructure, and key industries, aligning with broader security concerns. Harris may take a cautious approach to technological innovation, potentially slowing down the pace of certain advancements in favor of stronger regulatory frameworks. This could be due to concerns about cybersecurity, privacy, or the societal impacts of emerging technologies.

In terms of fiscal policy, Harris could aim to move the U.S. toward a budget surplus, signaling a commitment to long-term economic stability. This might involve a combination of strategic spending cuts and measures to enhance revenue, all while maintaining essential public services. Internationally, Harris may seek to strengthen U.S. alliances, reinforcing the country’s global influence in trade, security, and diplomacy. By doing so, she could ensure the U.S. remains a key player in international cooperation on issues like climate change and human rights. These initiatives, while plausible, would depend on the political landscape and the evolving global context during her term.

As a first-term president, Harris might also begin laying the groundwork for potential constitutional reforms to be pursued in a second term. These could include adjustments to the makeup of the Supreme Court, possibly with the aim of ensuring a more balanced judiciary. Additionally, she might explore reforms to the structure of the Senate, potentially addressing disparities in representation. Granting statehood to disenfranchised populations, such as those in Washington, D.C., or Puerto Rico, could also be considered, as part of a broader effort to expand democratic participation. These changes, however, would be contingent on significant political support and would likely be framed as long-term goals.

Speculation about a Trump second term

In a potential second term, Donald Trump might seek to implement a range of economic policies aimed at restoring U.S. manufacturing. Financial tariffs could be central to this strategy, designed to protect domestic industries by making imported goods more expensive, thereby encouraging companies to bring production back to the U.S. Such tariffs could align with broader trade policies that prioritize American jobs and economic self-sufficiency. However, these measures might also face criticism for increasing costs to consumers and potentially straining international trade relations.

Trump’s administration may also pursue a restructuring of tax policy that would transfer wealth upwards, possibly through corporate tax cuts or deregulation, which could be framed as incentives to fuel business growth, though opponents would likely argue these policies could exacerbate income inequality.

In healthcare, a second Trump term could involve further efforts to thin back the Affordable Care Act (ACA), continuing the trend of reducing federal involvement in healthcare established during his first term. This might result in more limited coverage options, particularly for those relying on government-subsidized insurance plans. On the constitutional front, Trump could explore an amendment allowing presidents to run for a third term, a controversial move that would require significant political support and could face strong opposition.

In terms of foreign policy, Trump’s focus might center on the Middle East, with a particular emphasis on Iran. His administration could adopt a hardline stance aimed at curbing Iran’s influence in the region, possibly through sanctions, military positioning, or diplomatic isolation. Additionally, Trump might seek further engagement with North Korea and Russia to negotiate a concessional peace in Ukraine, potentially leveraging his personal diplomacy to address ongoing conflicts and stabilize international relations.

But who wins?

First the normal cavat,

Accurate predictions in futures thinking don’t ensure success; it’s the agility to adjust and respond to evolving landscapes that truly determines future outcomes. We offer these predictions, written 2024-10-23, just for interest.

Harris wins the popular vote.

Harris wins the electoral college.

TPEX, 2023. Futures Thinking 2024 Horizon 1.URL.

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